🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."